Uncertainty Dominates the Outlook

Nearly half of American business leaders — 49 percent — have identified uncertain economic conditions as their top challenge heading into 2026, according to a comprehensive outlook survey published by JP Morgan. The finding underscores the degree to which volatility and unpredictability have become defining features of the current business environment.

The survey, which polled executives across industries and company sizes, paints a picture of cautious leadership navigating a landscape shaped by policy shifts, trade tensions, and evolving consumer behavior.

Tariffs Rise as a Flashpoint

Perhaps the most notable finding is the rapid emergence of tariff-related issues as a pressing concern. At 31 percent, worries about trade policy now tie with workforce and labor challenges for third place on the list of top business headaches — a dramatic rise from previous surveys where tariffs barely registered.

The surge reflects the real-world impact of ongoing trade negotiations and threatened tariff increases on supply chains, input costs, and pricing strategies. Companies with international supply chains report particular anxiety about the unpredictability of trade policy.

Workforce Pressures Persist

Workforce and labor concerns remain stubbornly high at 31 percent, driven by a combination of talent shortages, rising labor costs, and the challenge of retaining skilled employees in a competitive market. The tight labor market, while positive for workers, continues to create pressure on margins for businesses unable to fully pass along increased compensation costs.

How Leaders Are Responding

Despite the challenges, the survey reveals a pragmatic resilience among business leaders. Many report investing in technology and automation to mitigate labor constraints, diversifying supply chains to reduce tariff exposure, and building larger cash reserves to weather potential economic disruptions.

Capital expenditure plans remain positive, with a majority of respondents indicating they plan to maintain or increase investment in 2026 — though the composition of that spending has shifted toward efficiency improvements rather than expansion, as reported by JP Morgan.

The Bigger Picture

The outlook data suggests an economy in transition — not heading toward recession but not firing on all cylinders either. Business leaders appear to be preparing for a year that demands agility and careful risk management rather than aggressive growth strategies.